Uncivilized

The Uncivilized Books Blog

New Tariff World

I was asked to contribute to the recent TCJ article on the impact of tariffs on the comics industry. I didn’t get a chance to, but I did write down some thoughts on the issue, which I’d like to share.

Just looking at the header cartoon, it’s evident that tariffs have been debated for a long time. The header cartoon (I don’t know the artist; let me know if you do) is from a 1912 Puck magazine. Yet, if you’re familiar with the contemporary political landscape, the message is immediately recognizable.

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First, a caveat: It’s unclear where the tariff rates might end up. We can only guess about how the markets will react. Also, everything here, as in the TCJ article, may be void, depending on what happens over the next few weeks. The article raises a lot of concerns, and rightly so. I agree with many of them. I wanted to take a different approach. Rather than elucidating how things will fall apart, I considered how high tariffs may restructure the comics market in new and potentially interesting ways. Or at least one with interesting possibilities. This should not be seen as an exhaustive analysis or an endorsement of the tariffs. It’s just a conversation starter.

Tariff impact

I’d be remiss not to note that some experts argue that higher tariffs, instead of increasing prices in the US, may lower prices at the supplier level. For example, printers in Asia may lower prices to keep their access to the US market. I don’t know how plausible this explanation is. This move might work if the tariff increase is relatively low. In any case, the administration’s goal is to re-shore some of the lost US manufacturing capacity. The tariffs must be high enough to prevent a simple overseas manufacturer discount. At least initially, the most significant change would be a shift from printing in China to Europe and Canada. However, the administration has threatened tariffs on both alternatives, which might not be viable in the long term. The following analysis is purely speculative.

Graphic Novel

The high-production-value graphic novel may become a semi-luxury item. Large publishers will be able to dominate the GN market more thoroughly. They are the only ones with print runs that are high enough to mitigate the increased costs. On the indie side, higher prices, shorter print runs, direct-to-fans marketing, etc., will become even more common. However, as a result, GN might lose some of its overall market share.

Comic Books

Could the tariffs revitalize the serialized pamphlet comics market? Most pamphlet comic books are still printed in North America. Serialization of the stand-alone, literary graphic novel may become desirable again, leading to more experiments in format. More comics might start looking like our Ginseng Roots series (a smaller, affordable, 2-color, 6 x 9 format)—a call back to the varied indie formats of the 90s. Remember the various formats in Acme Novelty Library, Eightball, Louis Riel, Peepshow, and many others? The oversized magazine format has recently been revived—see Conan magazine, Dstlry line, and other titles prominently displayed in most shops.

Ideal situation

Higher prices will create new incentives for domestic printers to increase capacity and quality. Over time, this should result in lower prices and simplified logistics. I don’t know how likely that is. But, as a publisher, I’d prefer domestic production. Everything becomes simpler: shipping, timelines, and other logistics become easier to manage.

Print On Demand

POD will likely be the biggest winner here. POD has rapidly gone from barely acceptable quality to almost as good as offset. In some cases, it can match or exceed it. This process will likely continue, and higher-quality, more automated POD will continue to develop and expand. Prices will continue to drop. POD is already an essential tool for many indie creators and small publishers.

Digital

High tariffs might just be the shock that forces more digital comics sales and consumption. Comics have been relatively resistant to digitalization. However, as prices rise, this will naturally absorb more work previously purchased, mainly in print.

NFT

The drive to digital will probably entice more creators to take advantage of various crypto/blockchain opportunities. Comics creators have been largely allergic to NFTs and other crypto art projects, but that might change with higher print prices and the search for new business and funding models.

Combine the above with a more open distribution environment, and you will have a recipe for profound industry changes. In the short term, this will lead to a lot of chaos—all transitions are painful. Hopefully, it could also lead to new formats, expanded manufacturing capacity, expanded choices, more opportunities, and good comics.

To quote various scholars of crises:

Mao: “Great disorder under heaven, the situation is excellent.”

Lenin: “The worse, the better.”

Krugman: “The crisis offers an opportunity to do things you could not do before.”

Taleb: “The best opportunities come from the worst possible situations.”

Friedman: “Only a crisis – actual or perceived – produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around.”

Is it possible to use this crisis to create a better comics industry?


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